At this point, no one knew. Everything was moving according to plan when the most exposed Union troops met their first Confederates. That first skirmish was a Union victory, but Hooker then made the command to fall back.

Those who examine the situation today believe that one of two possibilities exist. The first is that Hooker lost his nerve, plain and simple. But given the confidence he had exuded to this point, it seems unlikely. The second, and more plausible, possibility is that Hooker—a confirmed alcoholic—had dried out too quickly. An army physician was alarmed at the way in which Hooker went “cold turkey” on the bottle in the months prior to Chancellorsville; he remained convinced that had Hooker weaned himself more steadily, all would have been well. This, of course, begs yet another question: How could the good or bad performance of one man make such a difference?