As late as September 1864, Lincoln continued to think his reelection quite dicey. A master of political arithmetic, he drew up a number of lists that showed how McClellan could win. But to the general public, things looked quite different.

If Sherman had not captured Atlanta, McClellan’s candidacy might have caught on more strongly. But with Grant pinning Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia and Atlanta both taken and occupied, it was hard to argue against Lincoln as a successful war leader.